International Consultant, Demographic Resilience Reviews and Foresight-Based Scenario PlanningNew

Leads demographic resilience reviews for UNFPA regional offices, developing a harmonised methodology to forecast demand for public services and fiscal effects of population change. The consultant produces country reviews, scenario-planning analysis and implementation guidance that help governments plan long-term, evidence-based adaptation to demographic trajectories.

• Develop a harmonised methodology for demographic resilience reviews with regional and national counterparts
• Prepare an inception report setting out methodology, workplan, data requirements and collaboration arrangements
• Compile national and subnational population projections and demographic trends
• Generate long-term forecasts of public-service demand, fiscal balances and demographic pressures
• Produce consolidated country review reports, stakeholder presentations and final methodological guidance
• Facilitate validation and structured learning across participating countries
• Develop foresight-based scenario analysis integrating technological, social, political and environmental shifts

• Advanced university degree in demography, economics, statistics, social sciences, GIS, foresight analysis or related fields
• Minimum 15 years of relevant professional experience in demographic and economic analysis
• Full professional proficiency in written and oral English

• PhD degree in relevant areas
• Experience in macro-fiscal forecasting, public expenditure modelling or spatial data disaggregation
• Familiarity with the mandate of UNFPA
• Experience with the UN or INGO in economic policies
• Experience working in the Arab context

• Demographic Analysis
• Economic Analysis
• Statistical Modelling
• Econometric Modelling
• Macroeconomic Forecasting
• Public Expenditure Modelling
• Scenario Planning
• Foresight Analysis
• Policy Analysis
• Technical Report Writing

• Possible missions are covered separately by UNFPA